We’re in the midst of one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons ever recorded. By the season’s climatological peak on September 10, we had already seen more named storms in the Atlantic than a typical year would record in an entire season. We’re heading into the final two months of this hyperactive hurricane season and there are still plenty of opportunities for additional storms to develop before winter settles in.

Today, the National Hurricane Center has an area of interest in the Caribbean pegged for a medium (60 percent) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by this weekend. It’s far too early to say what, if any, impacts this system would have on the United States if it develops, but it’s a stark reminder that this raucous hurricane season isn’t over yet.

Regardless of its potential development, the disturbance in the Caribbean is exactly where you’d expect to see a storm develop this time of year.

The heart of hurricane activity shifts around in the Atlantic Ocean as the season progresses. The beginning of the season starts in June and July with storms that form closer to the United States and Caribbean.

Tropical development is likely farther out in the eastern Atlantic in August and September as favorable conditions—low wind shear and warm waters—coincide with intense thunderstorm complexes moving off the western African coast, which seed the development of classic long-track storms.

Tropical activity in the Atlantic shifts back toward the Caribbean Sea in October and November as the eastern Atlantic becomes hostile to tropical cyclone development and thunderstorms stop moving off of Africa.

The most common seeds for tropical development in the last two months of hurricane season are thunderstorm complexes that develop over Central America and the decaying remnants of cold fronts. Cold fronts sweeping across the United States often lose steam and stall out once they reach the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and western Atlantic. These decaying fronts can serve as the focal point for robust thunderstorms to develop, which can trigger the development of a tropical cyclone.

It’s wise to pay attention to any storms that form over the next couple of weeks even though we’re past the peak of the season. There’s still plenty of warm water present and atmospheric conditions, while increasingly hostile, encounter enough lulls to support intensifying storms.

October has a long history of strong hurricanes threatening the United States. Hurricane Michael made landfall on the Florida Panhandle in October 2018, becoming the first category five to make landfall in the United States since Andrew in 1992. Hurricane Wilma, which was of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, struck southern Florida as a major hurricane a week before Halloween in 2005.

It’s hard to believe that there’s still so much hurricane season left to get through. This has been the second most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. This year is second only to 2005 in terms of hurricane activity, when we saw 27 named storms.

We’ve seen a whopping 23 named storms so far this year, exhausting the official list of 21 names and requiring the use of Greek letters to name the season’s remaining storms. We’ve run through the Greek letters Alpha and Beta so far, so Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon are the next three names that’ll be used for storms in the Atlantic.

Four of the nine storms to hit the United States this year made landfall as hurricanes. The storms that made landfall include Hurricane Laura, which devastated southwestern Louisiana as a powerful category four storm, and Hurricane Isaias, which knocked out power to millions of people along the East Coast from Florida to Maine.

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